The Ronkonkoma Conundrum

(Photo: Tri-State Rail NOW)

The Hamlet of Ronkonkoma, a place I live quite close to, probably seems like a very dense urban neighborhood, however, the truth is quite far from that. In fact, there’s barely more people in Ronkonkoma then there are that use that station. The truth is, the vast majority of people boarding at Ronkonkoma are actually not from Ronkonkoma itself, or even if it’s immediate surrounding communities but rather from places east, north, south, and even west of it.

In order for commuter rail to work as it’s supposed to, service should be proportional to population density, all the way out to the end of the line. At no point should there be a steep service drop-off (unless the population similarly drops off, which hasn’t and won’t happen on Long Island). For example, out on the North Fork, service may be relatively proportional out in Greenport, however, Riverhead for example has 30% of people living there while service sees an 85% reduction. Many of those who live in Riverhead, or other communities on the North Fork, “just drive to Ronkonkoma.”

The truth is these riders just fly past their local stations because the levels of service compared to what you can get at Ronkonkoma is just laughable. The lack of service on the East End is much worse considering there are very few alternatives besides taking Hampton Jitney which is double the price. Another example of this is the West Hempstead Branch. While it gets much, much better service than that of on the East End, it still sees slightly less service then that of the Far Rockaway, Long Beach, and Hempstead branches, all of which have communities of very similar population density. Therefore, ridership suffers and people look elsewhere for better service.

Not only do the desperate riders who live east of Ronkonkoma flock to Ronkonkoma for actual service, many riders that live closer to the Montauk and Port Jefferson branches, also find themselves driving to, and then parking at Ronkonkoma. While rush hour options on the Montauk and Port Jefferson branches are definitely much, much better than on the East End, they are still limited compared to what you can get on the Ronkonkoma Branch, therefore people drive there for the more frequent and direct service.

The truth is only an estimated 34% of Ronkonkoma ridership comes from the Ronkonkoma area itself. Roughly two thirds of riders who use this station are driving from a community elsewhere on Long Island that is probably served by a very different station. It’s possible to determine from the LIRR’s 2012-2014 Origin and Destination Survey where the MTA asked riders to provide their zip code:

• About only 34% of riders come from the local area, while another estimated 18% of riders drive south from communities along the Port Jefferson Branch.
• 17% backtrack of it’s riders backtrack east from Brentwood, Central Islip, and Islandia (with the latter being more understandable due to the location being closer to Ronkonkoma.)
• 15% of riders drive north from communities along the Montauk Branch in the towns of Brookhaven and Islip.
• 12% of riders drive from areas along the Main Line in eastern portions of the Town of Brookhaven (instead of using Medford or Yaphank stations which is understandable given the one rush-hour train provided)
• 3% of riders drive west from the North Fork (areas in town of Riverhead and Southold)
• 2% of riders drive up the island from the South Fork (areas in the towns of Southampton and East Hampton)

If this doesn’t get the point across about just how many people from all over the island use this station, then I don’t know what does. A majority of these people are from the diesel branches, which makes sense, and the rest are riders backtracking from Central Islip and Brentwood, which actually surprised me quite a bit.

Diesel branch refugees

Nearly half those who surveyed using Ronkonkoma actually lived closer to a station on Long Island that’s served in diesel territory. And while the one-seat ride to New York is appealing to many, and is probably the main incentive, it’s also probably somewhat in part due to the poor rush-hour service levels. Both the Montauk and Port Jefferson branches see some pretty poor gaps in service, especially during the height of the morning rush hour, both having 30 minute gaps during the busiest part of the rush. In addition, with the exception of the dual-modes, which are well trafficked, there is little direct service into Manhattan (where a majority of the diesel riders are headed), therefore a lot of people would rather just drive to Ronkonkoma for the more frequent, and in many cases faster service.

Backtrackers from Central Islip and Brentwood

One of the more surprising elements of the survey was the abundance of backtrackers from Brentwood and Central Islip. At first I found this quite surprising considering the fact that both Brentwood and Central Islip see a very wide majority of the service Ronkonkoma does, therefore, unlike in diesel territory where service is limited, there’s no service incentive to backtrack.

However, when you look more closely at the data, the answer starts to become more clear. A majority of these riders took trains following the immediate swarm during the rush hour, taking trains that left at 8:31a, 9:41a, 10:41a, and 11:41a. By then on a normal weekday the parking lots would have been full, and this might explain why these people would drive to Ronkonkoma to park in the parking garage, which likely would still have storage space. The other reason people would backtrack is in order to ensure a seat, during the height of the morning rush hour, prior to the ESA schedules, there were a number of express trains out of Ronkonkoma:

• Train 2013, (the 6:24a from Ronkonkoma) which ran nonstop to Hicksville, and then New York.
• Train 2015 (the 6:39a from Ronkonkoma) which ran right before the old train 2017 from CI and carried a lot of local passengers
• Train 2017 (the 7:04a from Ronkonkoma) which ran nonstop to Deer Park.
• Train 2019 (the 7:19a from Ronkonkoma) which stopped at Central Islip and Brentwood before running non-stop to New York. This was one of the most trafficked trains for these 3 stations, therefore, a ton of people would likely drive to Ronkonkoma to guarantee a seat.

Nowadays, now that all of those trains are gone with East Side Access (for the worse in my opinion), I expect less people backtrack given that all trains from Ronkonkoma stop at Brentwood and Central Islip. However, there are probably some that due, either for parking (later in the rush) or to guarantee a seat.

Should the LIRR ever put in the work to improve service on the diesel branches, specifically working to alleviate the service gaps during the height of the rush hour, something I’m doing in my timetable project, they can probably fix the parking issues at Ronkonkoma, along with Central Islip, Brentwood, and Deer Park, opening up more spots for those people and leading to less backtracking. Currently, the free lot at Ronkonkoma fills up by 7:30am, and the same can probably be said for CI, Brentwood, and Deer Park which likely fill up around the same time or earlier.

I also believe that a huge part of the problem lies during the off-peak period, specifically during the reverse-peak. On days with events in NYC or at UBS Arena, trains to and from New York consistently have all 8, 10, or even 12 cars packed to the absolute gills with standees. The severe overcrowding is largely in part due to poor or even nonexistent reverse-peak service levels on the diesel branches. In addition, the diesel lines don’t have UBS Arena stops on any trains therefore people once again “drive to Ronkonkoma” further overcrowding those trains. Even with 2, 3, or even 4 extras (in addition to the regularly scheduled trains) after the Islanders games at Elmont, I still have seen trains that are crushloaded.

All of this puts extraordinary stress on poor Ronkonkoma. While capacity has improved greatly since the Third Track and Mid-Suffolk Electric Yard, service has actually in a way decreased. If you look at schedules pre-pandemic, there were 17 trains on the branch, now there are still 17, which is a increase of a grand total of 0 trains. And if you look at when the service is provided, you’ll notice that there’s a increase in service during the 4-6am hour. And while this is great considering the amount of construction workers with early shifts that live on this branch, it means there’s actually a decrease for people who are commuting during the height of the morning rush hour. To put it into perspective, prior to ESA, there were 7 trains arriving into New York during the 8-9am period, nowadays, there are only 4.

A big part of my timetable project has been to both improve peak service on the Ronkonkoma Branch while also improvising diesel service. This combination will hopefully draw less people off this overcrowded line and on to diesel trains that can help handle the loads better. If your interested in taking a look at it, it will release tomorrow morning at 6:00am!